In a recent outrage in Bulandshahar, a policeman was killed, with the prime accused, Yogesh Raj of Bajrang Dal, being blamed for mob violence and murder. A few local people were protesting against blatant cow slaughter in the city, with carcasses of cows being hung in the fields. Many media outlets have lashed out at Gorakshaks for being uncouth and uncontrolled, without a complete analysis of the situation. Nor have all the facts of the case been presented.
Gorakshaks, whose main focus is to protect cows and prevent cow slaughter, were in no way involved in this incident as per the given facts. Yet,the media and twitterati of leftist as well as right wing media, erupted in their censure of the situation, defaming Gorakshaks.
How did the police conclude that Bajrang Dal convener is prime accused? Unless a prophet came to recite prophetic verses, there is no way that police could have concluded that Bajrang Dal convenor is prime accused.
Consider the following:
No Proper Investigation
UP Police, in general, and Bulandshahr police in particular, does not have a great reputation of being great performers or investigators. The law and order situation for last 70 years is testimony of this.
For last several days police was allowing free run to peacefuls who had assembled in lakhs to do Ijtema in Bulandshahr. They were doing gundagardi, traveling without tickets, children were trapped in school, people were holed in their homes – all for a gathering without permission. Even media was not allowed.
Police Did Lathi Charge Without Reason
It is obvious who would put cow meat in bulk in farms of Hindus. And police, instead of sensitively dealing with matter, started lathi-charging the complainants. The double face of police in dealing with a gathering of lakhs without permission, and group of people offended by Gohatya is evident.
Yogesh Raj Filed FIR
The said Yogesh Raj was the person who filed the FIR. No one ever saw him rioting or chasing police. What is the probability of someone who himself filed complaint, who was not seen anywhere in any video or by any person, of killing a policeman at gunpoint range?
Why Did the Police Leave Him Alone?
Why did all policemen run away when their vehicle was attacked, leaving one officer alone? Hence, is it not more likely that one of the policemen is the actual culprit? At least it is proven that they were with the victim, and also ran away against code of conduct.
Chargesheet Names 70 Unknown People
The police charge-sheet names around 70 unknown people. Who were they? How can they be sure that they were not those who were behind Gohatya? Why is it not more likely that they killed the inspector, instead of a person whom no one saw killing and who himself had filed complaint?
Killing After Filing Complaint?
Why would someone kill a policeman after filing a complaint with the police when he knows hundreds have seen him and videos are being made for further circulation? Will he not prefer to kill anonymously?
Kill Out of Rage?
If it was kill out of rage, why did no one see him killing the police officer? Why did no one see him even as a part of the protests?
Who killed Sumit – a Protestor?
Some media channels are showing Sumit with stone in hands, to justify his murders. Why have different standards for Kashmir? Even if he was pelting stones, why would he be shot dead? Does this mean Bulandshahr police is horribly trained? Or was killing deliberate to incite crowd? Or was it out of hate for Hindus? Or was he killed by one of the 70 unknowns? In every case, it only shows police acted with incompetence. Why should we believe the claim of incompetents on who is the prime accused?
Police Beat Up Women
Further, to hunt prime accused, policemen went to his home, beat up women (yes, men beat up women). Do they not know that it is illegal for policemen to even touch women? Why they did not take female constables? If they don’t know even basic law and have such insensitivity, how do we trust their judgment and capability to handle the situation, or claim who is prime accused?
Evidence Does Not Add Up To the Story
Overall, given the evidence, it seems the prime accused has been made the prime accused due to pressure of appeasing Ijtema population, or out of sheer incompetence of police.
In reality, it is far more likely that either fellow policemen killed the inspector (an allegation made by family of slain policeman), or one or more of the Ijtema attendees killed him (remember that 70 unknown people are in chargesheet).
If this not be the case, let UP police (SIT or whatever) provide rhyme or reason that despite all the evidence that point to lacunae of police and role of 70 unknowns, why is a specific person (who is least likely to be murderer) being framed as prime accused?
Also, given the way all media channels are accusing Gorakshaks now (Gorakshaks were not even part of anything), it seems a well laid plan of enemies to use Ijtema as an opportunity to kill several birds with one stone.
Mathematical Probability of Gorakshaks Being Guilty
It is 33 times more likely that jihadi killed inspector in Bulandshahr. Yet Gorakshaks are being blamed.
See calculations below:
G = Gorakshak killer
J = Jihadi killer
E – Evidence of murder
P means Probability
P (G/E) means Probability of Gorakshak being killer given the murder evidence E we have
P(J/E) means Probability of Jihadi being killer given the murder evidence E we have
P(G) means Probability of Gorakshak being killer as per past track record (Prior)
P(G) means Probability of Jihadi being killer as per past track record (Prior)
P(G/E) ~ P(E/G)*P(G) (As per Bayes’ theorem. Almost all analytics today works on Bayes’ theorem) (1)
P(J/E) ~ P(E/J)*P(J) (2)
P(J) = Proportion of murders by Jihadis in say, last 10 years = 99%
P(G) = Proportion of murders by Gorakshaks in last 10 years ~ 0% (say we take 1% to appease)
P(G/E) = 75% say (assuming I am liberal. Is not 100% since no one saw murder. And trigger was deliberate beef display)
P(J/E) = 25% say
Hence, from (1) and (2),
P(J/E) / P(G/E) = 99*25/75=33
Thus, it is 33 times more likely that Jihadis killed inspector as per Bayes’ theorem of probability.
Even if you tinker with all my estimates, Jihadis will have more probability. Still Gorakshaks are being accused by media. Perhaps because they are bad in maths.
Darker Secrets Yet to Be Unveiled
Summary – Making Yogesh Raj the prime accused is nothing but a ploy to hide darker secrets.
This is my assertion. I invite police and media to counter my assertion with facts and reasons, not rhetorics and drama.
Cover Image: Flickr
Sanjeev Newar is the founder of Agniveer. He works in the area of self-transformation, Hinduism, Yoga, Social Equality. Professionally, he is an IIT-IIM grad and specializes in Analytics, Risk Management and Business.
Last modified: December 9, 2018